Wednesday, June 5, 2013

Why "NO PAIN, NO GAIN" Should Set Alarm Bells Ringing/ Chap 12/ The It'll-Get-Worse-Before-It-Gets-Better Fallacy



I would like to Thank our Creator for Pain in order to Gain....



 
 
LET'S TAKE AN EXAMPLE ABOUT A CEO...
 
that is at his wit's end: Sales are in the toilet, the salespeople are unmotivated, and the marketing campaign sank without a trace. In his desperation, he hires a consultant. For $5,000 a day, this man analyzes the company and comes back with his findings:" Your sales department has no vision, and your brand isn't positioned clearly. It's a tricky situation. I can fix it for you--but not overnight. The measures will require sensitivity, and, most likely, sales will fall further before things improve." The CEO hires the consultant.
 
 A year later, sales fall, and the same thing happens the next year. Again and again, the consultant stresses that the company's progress corresponds closely to his prediction. As sales continue their slump in the third year, the CEO fires the consultant. A mere smoke screen, the it'll-get-worse-before-it-gets-better-fallacy is a variant of the so-called confirmation bias. If the problem continues to worsen, the prediction is confirmed. If the situation improves unexpectedly, the customer is happy, and the expert can attribute it to his prowess. Either way he wins.
 
 
 
 
 
  The best evidence of this strategy's success is the religious zealot who believes that before we can experience heaven on earth, the world must be destroyed. Disaster, floods, fires, death----they are all part of the larger plan and must take place. These believers will view any deterioration of the situation as confirmation of the prophecy and any improvement as a gift from God..
 
 So in conclusion: If someone says, "It'll get worse before it gets better," you should hear a alarm bells ringing. But beware" Situations do exist where things first dip, then improve. For example, a career change requires time and often incorporates loss of pay. The reorganization of a business also takes time. But in all these cases, we can see relatively quickly if the measures are working. The milestones are clear and verifiable. Look at these rather than to the heavens.
 
 Once again it's been a challenge and a wonderful moment to share certain things, we as people don't think clear on and remember if you are looking  to earn some extra money don't forget to check out the link below. Have a bright day and leave your comments at the door. Thank you Jenn
 
 

 

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