Beware the "Special Case"Chap.7/ Confirmation Bias (part1)

I would like to first thank our Creator......For Revelation Knowledge....and my audience...

The confirmation bias is the mother of all misconceptions. It is the tendency to interpret new information so that it becomes compatible with our existing theories, beliefs, and convictions. In other words, we filter out any new information that contradicts our existing views ("disconfirming evidence"). This is a dangerous practice. "Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored," said writer Aldous Huxley.

 

 The following experiment shows how much effort it takes to question your own theory. A professor presented his students with the number sequence 2-4-6. They had to calculate the sheet of paper. The students had to provide the next number in the sequence to which the professor would reply "fits the rule" or "does not fit the rule." The students could guess as many numbers as they wanted but could try only once to identify the rule. Most students suggested 8 as the next number, and the professor replied: "Fits the rule." To be sure, they tried 10, 12, and 14. The professor replied each time: " Fits the rule. " The students concluded: "The rule is to add two to the last number." The professor shook his head: "That is not the rule."

 

One shrewd student tried a different approach. He tested out the number -2. The professor said: " Does not fit the rule." "Seven?" he asked. "Fits the rule." The student tried all sorts of numbers:-24,9,-43. Apparently he had an idea, and he was trying to find a flaw with it. Only when he could no longer find counterexample, the student said: "The rule is this: The next number must be higher than the previous one. (What distinguished the resourceful student from the others?)

 

While the majority of students sought merely to confirm their theories, he tried to find fault with his, consciously looking for disconfirming evidence. Falling for the confirmation bias is not a petty intellectual offense.

 

Make sense huh? When you think clearly, it does... Some things in life, people worry about although it has no purpose, you can't do anything about it, or it happened because it was going to happen anyway.... You guys once again another great session and Please leave your comments...Think clear, BEWARE of DEEP ;)