Sunday, June 2, 2013

Why you should visit Cemeteries- Chap.1/ Survivorship Bias

First I would like to give thanks to our Creator...

Now I would like to add that these are true facts but it's up to you to judge it in your own prospective

NO JOURNALIST IS INTERESTED IN FAILURES

 
 
with the exception of fallen superstars, This makes the cemetery invisible to outsiders. In daily life, because triumph is made more visible than failure, you systematically overestimate your chances of succeeding. As an outsider, US succumb to an illusion, and WE mistake how minuscule the probability of success really is, like so many others, is a victim of survivorship bias.
 
THE MEDIA IS NOT INTERESTED IN DIGGING AROUND IN THE GRAVEYARDS

 
 
of the unsuccessful. Nor is this its job. To elude the survivorship bias, you must do the digging yourself. Even if your success stems from pure coincidence, you'll discover similarities with other winners and be tempted to mark these as "success factors." If you ever visit the graveyard of failed individuals and companies, you will realize that its tenants possessed many of the same traits that characterize your success.
 
 
SURVIVORSHIP BIAS MEANS THIS:
 
People systematically overestimate their chances of success. Guard against it by frequently visiting the graves of once-promising projects, investments, and careers. It is a sad walk but one that should clear your mind. 
 
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